Even Frank Sinatra couldn’t have done it better than Ben
So Ben did it. He pulled the pin and cut by 10 yards a month with a vague head nod to the fact that this will happen every month now, i.e. they’ll cut by 10 at every meeting. Ok so that last bit came with more disclaimers than the procedural manual for how to perform a vasectomy on yourself, but nonetheless he signalled the intention. Bravo and well done to the Bearded one. The market reaction? Well there were certainly (as always) as mass of “I told you so” messages sprouting from out of the woodwork, but that’s to be expected from the ever increasing number of Harry Hindsights out there. However beyond this, the massive USD buying that such a manoeuvre was meant to entail never really eventuated, and while yes of course you can argue about the volatility that ensued around the announcement and press conference, if you take a solid look at an hourly chart you’ll see that even this morning we’re not massively far away from levels that were trading this time yesterday.
Equities love the news as after all the dust has settled they realise that the party isn’t over and while it may not be the same amount every month, it’s still a shed load of free cash to pump back into stocks and voila. Gold on the other hand, well… Different story there and one that doesn’t really have a great deal of rationale to it. Technical traders and those with heavy hands are now looking for 1150 and I think they’ll see it. But be warned once they have printed that magic number… All hell will break loose and those with trailing stops on shorts can expect to get spread wider than a Christmas turkey as the market comes rallying back like a bat out of hell to the 1280/1300 area. That’s what my gut says and while I’m not always right, my gut certainly is (trust me, I’m a dentist).
With regard what to expect on the day, simply put, don’t!
It’s been over 4 hours since I walked in and nothing has moved, nor do I expect it to.
You know the drill, end of year, book and position squaring etc. Let alone after last night…
Not going to hazard levels today as simply put they won’t matter nor will there be enough activity for it to matter.
Should you be tempted to get involved however, I wish you luck and suggest those helmets stay firmly adorned.