That pesky interweb thingy
In another chapter from the song book of how to make numbers dance to any tune you play them, the latest print of UK retail sales was out this morning and with it an amazing beat to the upside away from median expectations. Understandably this has cause an almighty spike higher in the Cable and general Sterling crosses. With confusion reigning supreme about the wild swing in the data, it has since become apparent that seasonally adjusted online sales figures were included in the overall data set for the first time in this release. Those very online sales themselves were up a staggering 11.8% for the period. Interestingly however the UK Office for National Statistics has released a note on the issue saying “We are reviewing the seasonal adjustments for the proportion of sales made online, a further update on progress will be provided next month.”
In short mark the day in your calendars next month and await potentially the mother of all downside revisions…
Otherwise it has proven to be another quiet night in Asia and save for the excitement of this morning’s UK print, the market seems to be rather short of enthusiasm. With only building permits and Michigan confidence data due out of the US this afternoon, we could well be in for another quiet day and rather dull end to what has thus far been a horribly dull week in general.
The USD bull story is not one that I buy into personally as many of you would appreciate if you’ve read enough of this pieces in recent times and I only bring this up presently because we’re once again on the cusp of a US debt ceiling story. I know that a deal was seemingly reached and agreed to in the US sometime around early December, but, and this is a very important but the details have neither been finalised nor voted and passed on yet! Get ready folks, the newswires are about to get a little messy… Oh and if you’re in the camp that believes the EURUSD should be trading closer to 1.3000 and lower etc, I suggest buying some upside protection…
On the day with regard levels…
EURUSD: Dying a rather undignified death as it has been doing all week. Levels haven’t changed in recent days and neither has the range trading bias. Sellers into 1.3630/50 and buyers into 1.3570/80. Downside has stops, the upside doesn’t.
GBPUSD: After the stellar print this morning we’ve seen Betty trade into reflex highs of 1.6450/55. Capped up there for the time being by natural selling interest, the road is still paved higher for the Cable and thus if looking to fade this move is your preferred play, I suggest not getting involved until you see at least 1.6480 trade and/or 1.6500/30. Much better risk/reward profile up there. Downside? What downside? Have you seen the data?
AUDUSD: Not sure what to do with itself after the move yesterday it still sits heavy. However the distinct lack of movement suggest that everyone that wants to be short, already is and certainly won’t be doing any more selling here for fear of a short squeeze. To feel more comfort they’ll await more data prints to either confirm or refute the bear story. Stops while insignificant do sit on the topside around the 0.8840/50 area.
As always on a Friday though, don’t ruin your weekend with a cheap punt.
Helmets on and good luck out there.