The final NFP lottery print of the year awaits
Asian ranges and flows remained quiet overnight in light of the marquee event due later this afternoon. After Mario failed to announce any new acronyms and put pay to talk of negative rates and further easy money, the EURUSD had nothing left to do but run higher. Bears and Euro sceptics are left struggling to rationalise and reconcile what is going on but the market and certainly the currency seems to be marching to the beat of its own drum.
Overall though, it’s hard to get too enthused about this market as everyone sits on hands waiting for the print. The lead up figures (ADP on Wednesday) showed the way and the market for the most part now expects a strong number as a consequence. Only a wild swing away from the median expectations will likely cause any real distress and movement. But in truth it will need to be a combination of very strong factors, unemployment rate edging lower, strong upside underlying payrolls and participation rate to really get the USD bulls out in force.
In terms of crosses, the EURUSD really does look set for a move to 1.3750 with large stops tipped into 1.3710. On the downside buyers so far emerge into 1.3630 (stops below) and more interest into 1.3580. The Cable however should continue to edge higher almost irrespective of what the USD may or may not do and its inability to get below 1.6300 yesterday leaves many stops untouched (for now) around the 1.6280 area. On the topside in Betty Asian interest to sell it lies around the 1.6410/20/30 area, with a small smattering of stops heard around the 1.6380 area. The USDJPY is going to be a complete hostage to the NFP number and stops in size are being spoken of sub the 101.50 area. For the most part however nothing but JOY sellers and USDJPY buyers are noted.
One final mention for the EURGBP (which burnt me yesterday) which for now seems to also be on a path higher but 0.8400/30 will be a step too far for the cross and perhaps looking to fade that area early in the new week could prove to be the way forward.
Helmets on and good luck out there today.